Breakfast | Tesla's stock price plummeted last week! Trump hinted at announcing "reciprocal tariffs" this week
Earlier, Trump stated that he would announce a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports on Monday. This week, key points to focus on include: Powell's testimony to Congress, the timing of interest rate cuts becoming a key focus, China's January financial data possibly achieving a "good start," and the U.S. January CPI data expected to remain stubborn
Market Overview Last Friday
Last Friday, the U.S. non-farm data was mixed, Michigan's inflation expectations soared, and Trump's speech impacted the market.
The Nasdaq fell over 1%, and both the S&P and Nasdaq ended their three-day winning streak, declining for two consecutive weeks. After the earnings report, Amazon dropped over 4%; Nvidia managed a four-day rally, accumulating over 11% in gains; Google fell 9% during earnings week; Tesla dropped 11% over the week.
Key Focus for the Week
Trump hinted at implementing "reciprocal tariffs," Powell is set to testify before Congress, making the timing of interest rate cuts a key focus, and China's January financial data may achieve a "good start," while the U.S. January CPI data is expected to remain stubborn.
Foreign Media: Trump Hints at Announcing "Reciprocal Tariffs" This Week
Earlier, Trump stated that he would announce a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports on Monday.
Reuters commented that Trump's "offensive" represents a "major escalation" in tearing up and reshaping global trade relations in favor of the U.S.
Musk's Turbulent Week in Washington, Tesla's Stock Price Plummets
Last week, Tesla's stock price plummeted by 11%, marking the largest weekly decline since October of last year, down 25% from the historical high on December 17. Tesla, valued at about three times the average level of the "Magnificent 7" tech giants, has become the worst-performing member of that index this year.
Media analysis suggests that Musk's political stance may be alienating Tesla's most crucial target customers—wealthy Democratic supporters concerned about climate change—while failing to attract new consumer groups.
How Much Room Is Left After the Surge in Hong Kong Stocks?
CICC believes that enthusiasm for AI is driving technology stocks to lead, with sentiment being the main driver. After experiencing a significant surge, there are signs of short-term exhaustion, and some technical indicators are nearing overbought levels, but there are still internal disagreements among investors. If the risk premium falls back to the 6.7% level seen in May last year, it would correspond to about 21,600 points for the Hang Seng Index; if the risk premium further drops to 6% as seen in early October last year, it would correspond to around 23,000 points for the Hang Seng Index, but this is quite challenging.
DeepSeek Surpasses 100 Million Users in 7 Days
DeepSeek, which launched 20 days ago, has over 20 million daily active users, 40% of ChatGPT's figures. After the release of DeepSeek-R1 a few days ago, it experienced an explosion in the last week of January, accumulating 125 million users in January (including website and app users without deduplication). Over 80% of users came from the last week, meaning DeepSeek achieved a growth of 100 million users in just 7 days.
Alibaba Denies $1 Billion Investment in DeepSeek
There were reports that Alibaba planned to invest $1 billion in DeepSeek to acquire a 10% stake, but insiders at Alibaba called it "fake news." Due to ongoing computing power shortages, some believe it is time for DeepSeek to seek investors, especially since DeepSeek is a rare case that has not yet completed its first round of financing while aiming to catch up with OpenAI's large model companies at a lower cost.
U.S. January Non-Farm Payrolls Added 143,000, Significantly Below Expectations, Unemployment Rate Unexpectedly Drops to 4%
As of the 12 months ending March 2024, the number of jobs added was 589,000 less than initially reported, lower than the preliminary estimate from August last year. Last month, the labor force surged by 2.2 million, the highest since data has been available in 1948. "New Federal Reserve News Agency": The January employment report is unlikely to change the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see attitude. Wall Street: Don't expect a rate cut in March.
China's January CPI rose 0.5% year-on-year, PPI fell 2.3% year-on-year
In January, influenced by the Spring Festival, China's national CPI growth expanded, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rebounded for the fourth consecutive month. Industrial production is in the off-season, and the PPI fell year-on-year, with the decline the same as last month