Goldman Sachs hedge fund mogul: The S&P has not changed much in the past three months, but the market is "exhausted."

In the recent fluctuations of the market, if you feel fatigued, you are not alone.

Tony Pasquariello, head of Goldman Sachs' hedge fund business, pointed out that although the S&P 500 index has barely changed in the past three months, the market is facing increasingly complex challenges. Pasquariello stated:

"We are running hard but find ourselves standing still."

Despite the increased difficulty in trading, the situation is not the worst; the S&P is only 1.5% away from its all-time high, and market breadth remains good. Pasquariello noted that the current market is like a puzzle, and the process of piecing it together is more challenging than ever.

Market Fog: Fluctuating Tariff Policies, Intensifying AI Competition, Who Will Be the Next Winner?

One of the complexities of the market is the changing tariff policies. A recent series of trade dynamics appears more complicated compared to 2018. According to the American political news site "Politico" and Reuters, U.S. President Trump stated on February 7 that he would announce reciprocal tariff measures next week.

Regarding the ultimate impact on the market, Pasquariello believes that U.S. policies will overall support the stock market. Although the market remains uncertain, implied volatility is being continuously sold off every day, bringing relatively low risk costs to investors.

"Therefore, if you want to take on the risks you believe in, the cost of sleeping well through the options market is not too high."

After experiencing trade-centered news, the topics of AI and large U.S. tech companies have temporarily taken a backseat. However, recent earnings seasons have revealed some important patterns in the market.

For example, META and Microsoft plan to increase capital expenditures to $60 billion to $65 billion and $80 billion, respectively, while Google's and Amazon's expectations have risen to $75 billion and $100 billion. Pasquariello pointed out that capital will continue to flow into the AI sector, although the accompanying risks of competition and technological disruption are also rising.

Pasquariello also predicts that the European market may become the next target of trade policies. In the face of global threats, governments will compete to increase output, productivity, and security to meet the increasingly anxious demands of the public. This means that governments may adopt more stimulus policies to promote economic development.

Meanwhile, gold prices have risen significantly this week, mainly driven by tariff uncertainties and strong demand. Pasquariello believes that the possibility of gold breaking through $3,000 has significantly increased. Additionally, the performance of the yen is also noteworthy, as long-term stable returns and domestic wage growth, along with its impact on the Japanese economy, have led to a more optimistic view of the yen in the market

Looking ahead, Pasquariello remains optimistic that we are still in a bull market, although market volatility and consensus expectations have decreased compared to the past. He believes that the key to macro trading is to preserve capital and seize the 3 to 4 major trends that may emerge in the future. Despite the challenging market environment, investors must remain vigilant and adjust their strategies in a timely manner in response to the dual impacts of policy changes and technological advancements to cope with the ever-changing market landscape