The U.S. Consumer Confidence Index fell to a seven-month low, with inflation expectations rising significantly

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, concerns over tariff policies have intensified, leading to a surge in U.S. consumer expectations for short-term inflation. This has caused a significant decline in the consumer confidence index at the beginning of February, dropping to its lowest level in seven months. Following the release of this data, the three major U.S. stock indices turned negative, with the Nasdaq down 0.9% and spot gold's gains expanding to 0.8%.

According to preliminary survey data released by the University of Michigan on Friday, the consumer confidence index fell by 3.3 points to 67.8 in February, below the forecasts of all economists surveyed by Bloomberg. This data reflects growing consumer concerns about the economic outlook.

The survey shows that consumers expect prices to rise at an annual growth rate of 4.3% over the next year, a significant increase of 1 percentage point from the previous month. Additionally, consumer inflation expectations for the next five to ten years have also slightly risen, with an expected average annual growth of 3.3%.

Currently, the U.S. government is advancing policies to impose tariffs on major trading partners, which could further drive up the prices of goods and services. Economists warn that if all tariff policies are implemented as scheduled, leading to price increases, consumer spending will be significantly affected, thereby dragging down overall economic growth.

Due to rising inflation expectations and uncertain economic prospects, consumers' willingness to purchase high-priced items (such as cars, houses, and durable goods) has decreased by 12 percentage points compared to last month. Notably, this trend is reflected across party lines, indicating that the overall decline in consumer confidence is not limited to any particular political stance.

Joanne Hsu, director of the consumer survey at the University of Michigan, stated in a statement: "Republicans' confidence in the economy had rapidly increased after the election, but it is now declining, while Democrats remain concerned about the impact of Trump's economic policies."

Data shows that the confidence index among Republican supporters has declined for the first time since August of last year, while the confidence among Democratic supporters continues to deteriorate, reaching its lowest level since 2020. Additionally, the confidence index among political independents has also shown a decline.

Meanwhile, the job market is also showing signs of weakness. Another set of data released on Friday indicated that job growth slowed in January, and the government revised down the employment data for the past year, suggesting that the vitality of the labor market is not as strong as previously expected. Furthermore, an increasing number of unemployed individuals are facing longer job search times, adding pressure to the job market.

The survey also revealed that the index assessing consumers' views on the current economic situation dropped from 74 to 68.7, marking the lowest level in three months; the economic expectations index also fell to 67.3, the weakest level since November 2023. Meanwhile, consumers' expectations for their personal financial situation have dropped to the lowest point since October 2023, and the outlook for the overall economy in the coming year has also worsened