The significance of Tariff 2.0 on asset prices

Recently, the global market has once again fallen into volatility due to adjustments in tariff policies. This new phase, referred to as "Tariff 2.0," has had a profound impact on the prices of various assets. The research team at DFZQ analyzed that the exchange rate reacted most clearly, followed by the stock market, while the trends of U.S. Treasury bonds, gold, and crude oil are significantly influenced by other fundamental factors.

On February 6, DFZQ analysts Wang Zhongyao, Wu Zeqing, Sun Jinxia, and Cao Jingnan released a report stating that the room for U.S. tariff increases in 2025 is limited, and tariff-related news may disturb the market, but the impact is likely to be confined to event trading and moderate shocks.

Exchange Rate: The Most Direct "Barometer"

DFZQ found that the exchange rate reacted most clearly to the Tariff 2.0 news. When recent tariff news was announced, currencies such as the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso depreciated significantly against the U.S. dollar. Overall, the depreciation of the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso has exceeded pre-inauguration levels.

The analysis suggests:

"Regardless of which country the policy information specifically targets, the rhythm of exchange rate fluctuations for non-U.S. countries related to trade friction is basically consistent."

Among them, the implied volatility of the 1-month USD/CNY options has risen significantly, with the market expecting that the potential fluctuation space of the exchange rate will expand again in the short term. Based on the implied volatility of the 1-month options, there is a fluctuation space of approximately ±1300 pips for USD/CNY.

Stock Market: Significant Negative Feedback in Both U.S. and Non-U.S. Markets

The report pointed out that both the U.S. stock market and non-U.S. stock markets have shown significant negative feedback to trade friction. The U.S. stock market experienced wide fluctuations or declines after the tariff news was announced, and funds linked to the CSI 300 in the U.S. market also showed significant declines.

However, the resilience of the Chinese market is relatively high, possibly due to Deepseek-related trading characteristics.

The analysis suggests that due to the unpredictability of trade friction, it may be worth considering continuing to go long on volatility in the short term.

Bond Market: Clear Trend of Curve Flattening

In the bond market, the research team observed that U.S. Treasury bonds did not continue the post-election Trump trade direction. Recent performance shows that short-term interest rates rising reflect inflation risks, while long-term interest rates falling reflect negative growth shocks, with tariff trading leading to curve flattening:

"Overall, the risk of stagflation leading to curve flattening is a relatively clear trade direction for trade friction."

It is worth noting that the current 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is trading in the range of 4.5-4.6%, significantly higher than the approximately 3.9% priced by DFZQ's macro model, indicating that U.S. Treasuries still possess significant relative value.

Commodities: Divergence in Gold and Crude Oil Trends

The report analysis points out that, on one hand, trade frictions have led to a stronger US dollar, suppressing gold prices, which often experience immediate declines during recent event shocks. However, from the overall trading range, the significant increase in gold reflects that the market still chooses gold as a risk hedging tool.

On the other hand, the analysis believes that, assuming that global production and demand are not significantly affected in the short term, the temporary tariffs have limited impact on crude oil. However, if the tariffs tend to become permanent, they will negatively impact global oil prices through demand suppression.

Additionally, the report compares asset trends with the Tariff 1.0 period. The report shows that during the trade friction period of 2018-2019, the trends of stocks, exchange rates, and soybeans were consistent with this observation, but the trends of US Treasury bonds, gold, and crude oil did not align, which also means that assets such as gold, crude oil, and US Treasury bonds must also consider key fundamental trading factors.

Risk Warning and Disclaimer

The market has risks, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment goals, financial conditions, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article align with their specific circumstances. Investing based on this is at your own risk