Goldman Sachs: Gold faces "tactical decline"
Goldman Sachs expects gold prices to experience a tactical decline due to the easing of tariff uncertainties and normalization of positions, potentially falling to $2,650. However, continued central bank purchases of gold and increased ETF holdings following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts will support its forecast of gold prices reaching $3,000 per ounce by 2026. Since President Nixon ended the gold standard in 1971, gold has accounted for a small proportion of international reserves, but after the Ukraine war, central banks around the world have been increasing their gold reserves
Goldman Sachs believes that if tariff uncertainties dissipate and positions normalize, gold prices are expected to experience a tactical decline. However, continued purchases by central banks and the gradual increase in ETF holdings following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts will continue to support our forecast of gold prices reaching $3,000 per ounce by the second quarter of 2026.
Goldman Sachs expects gold prices may retreat to $2,650 from now.
Regarding central bank gold reserves, as shown in the figure, gold has been a negligible part of international reserves since President Nixon ended the gold standard in 1971. However, since the Ukraine war, the U.S. has weaponized financial sanctions against Russia, initiating a new cycle of central bank gold reserves, with central banks and other authorities purchasing gold in droves.
