A trillion-dollar market opportunity! Cathie Wood: By 2030, the number of global robot taxis is expected to reach 50 million, with Tesla likely to account for 50%

"Wood Sister" latest prediction, with the popularization of autonomous driving technology, the robotaxi market is expected to grow rapidly in the next five years, and Tesla, holding Cybercab, will be the biggest winner.

On the 4th local time, ARK Invest, led by Cathie Wood, released the report "ARK Invest Big Ideas 2025," which extensively analyzed the robotaxi market for the next five years. The report predicts that by 2030, the robotaxi market size is expected to reach $10 trillion. By then, the number of robotaxis globally will reach approximately 50 million, with Tesla potentially accounting for about 50% of the market share.

ARK predicts that if Tesla allocates all of its future vehicle production capacity (rather than the currently assumed 30% to 40%) to robotaxi services, then Tesla itself could reach ARK's projected level for the entire robotaxi industry by 2030.

Trillion-Dollar Market Opportunity

According to ARK's estimates, at a price of $0.25 per mile, the robotaxi market size is expected to reach $10 trillion. At this price point, the population that autonomous driving transportation can serve will be larger than the current population served by human-driven ride-hailing services. Meanwhile, based on consumers' valuation of their time, demand may still be considerable even at higher price points.

The revenue opportunities for robotaxi services are enormous. For example, according to ARK's predictions, by 2030, Tesla's autonomous taxi service is expected to generate hundreds of billions of dollars in revenue annually, with a potential enterprise value reaching trillions of dollars.

Overall, the report predicts that by 2030, robotaxis will create up to $34 trillion in enterprise value.

Tesla and Waymo Lead the Way, Autonomous Driving Costs Expected to Drop Significantly

ARK believes that the leading positions of Tesla and Waymo in autonomous driving technology are likely to help both companies gain a competitive edge in the robotaxi industry:

Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology has made significant progress in 2023 and 2024, with more advanced autonomous driving features expected to be launched by 2025.

Waymo, a subsidiary of Google, launched its autonomous driving technology for commercial operations in 2018 and achieved approximately 175,000 driverless trips per week by 2024 Other companies such as Baidu's Luobo Kuaipao, Pony.ai, and WeRide are also actively developing autonomous driving technology.

At the same time, the cost of autonomous driving is expected to decrease significantly, and Tesla's Cybercab is anticipated to become the most cost-competitive robot taxi in the market.

According to ARK's analysis, the cost of Tesla's Cybercab could drop below $15,000 after mass production:

Tesla stated that the energy efficiency of the Cybercab will reach 5.5 miles per kilowatt-hour. Combined with the expected decline in battery costs according to Wright’s Law, this energy efficiency suggests that the cost of the battery could be as low as $2,300.

Generally, the drivetrain accounts for about 20% of the total cost, which means that the Cybercab can still be profitable when priced at $15,000 or lower.

The cost per mile for autonomous vehicles is expected to decrease significantly. For example, Tesla's autonomous taxi is expected to have a cost per mile of $0.25, far lower than traditional taxis and human-driven ride-hailing services.

In addition, Tesla's cost per mile is about 30% to 40% lower than Waymo's. ARK believes that Waymo's higher cost structure may put it at a disadvantage in competition, or its profitability may not match that of the Cybercab robot taxi service. Waymo's reliance on LiDAR and its choice of higher-cost automakers are two unfavorable factors affecting its competitive position