Cathie Wood firmly believes in AI: AI computing power will explode by 2030! A surge of 1000 times

After experiencing recent fluctuations in technology stocks, "Cathie Wood" led her ARK research team to release the annual blockbuster report "Big Ideas 2025."

In the report, Cathie Wood is bullish on the development prospects of AI computing power and AI agents. She stated that since entering the era of artificial intelligence in 2018, computer performance has doubled 40 times, and in 2023, it has surpassed 48 times. By the end of this century, thanks to the accelerated development of artificial intelligence, computing performance is expected to reach a new level.

According to ARK's research, the performance of artificial intelligence computing will be based on the rate of improvement in AI architecture performance per dollar. Driven by improvements in AI system architecture, it is expected that by 2030, the performance of AI computing per dollar will increase by more than 1,000 times.

As computing performance continues to improve, the trend of technological integration becomes increasingly significant. The five innovative platforms of artificial intelligence, robotics, energy storage technology, public blockchain, and multi-omics sequencing are reshaping various industries, leading to accelerated global economic development. These platforms not only achieve breakthrough progress individually but also intertwine and innovate collaboratively, giving rise to numerous new opportunities and transforming people's ways of living, working, and investing.

AI Agents Change Everything

Cathie Wood believes that AI agents are the core theme of future development, expected to accelerate the adoption of digital applications and trigger epoch-making changes in human-computer interaction.

AI agents can understand intentions through natural language, plan using reasoning and relevant context, take action using tools to achieve intentions, and continuously improve through iteration and ongoing learning. Starting in 2025, most hardware sales are expected to feature AI capabilities, achieving rapid large-scale adoption.

In the search field, AI agents will change the way consumers search and discover.

Once AI agents are embedded in the operating systems of consumer hardware, consumers can delegate all search and research tasks to AI, greatly saving time. Filtered AI results will provide more accurate displays for digital advertising based on context, enhancing advertising effectiveness.

If searches shift to personal AI agents, AI-mediated advertising revenue could see significant growth. It is expected that by 2030, AI advertising revenue could account for more than 54% of the $1.1 trillion digital advertising market.

In the field of e-commerce, the use of artificial intelligence agents is increasing, which will simplify product discovery, personalized recommendations, and the purchasing process. ARK's research indicates that by 2030, AI agents are expected to drive nearly $9 trillion in global online consumption, approaching 25% of the total reachable online sales globally.

Explosive Growth in Digital Wallet Market Share

AI agents will also push for growth in the share of digital wallets in e-commerce.

ARK's research shows that digital wallets empowered by AI purchasing agents are capturing market share from payment methods like credit and debit cards, with digital wallets expected to account for 72% of all e-commerce transactions by 2030.

Agent-based lead generation will drive digital wallets to capture market share in global e-commerce and digital spending, acquiring customers from upstream. "One-click checkout" will gradually be replaced by "one-click query purchase."

Based on lead generation fee rates, by 2030, AI purchasing agents could bring $40 billion to $200 billion in global revenue to digital wallet platforms (according to ARK's base and optimistic scenarios). By 2030, AI-driven purchasing agents could increase the enterprise value (EV) per user of U.S. digital wallets by $50 to $200.

In enterprises, AI agents will enhance productivity through software. Companies deploying AI agents can increase unit output without adding labor or optimize labor allocation to engage in higher-value activities. As AI develops, agents may take on a higher proportion of workloads and independently complete higher-value tasks.

The decline in AI costs will significantly impact the economic benefits of agents.

New products from OpenAI and Salesforce complement the work of human customer service representatives in a cost-effective manner. Even if the fixed cost per conversation is $1, once AI agents can handle 35% of customer service inquiries, they can save companies a significant amount of money. Additionally, AI agents can reduce onboarding and recruitment costs, as well as software costs based on seats, and are easier to scale than human labor.

Artificial Intelligence is Reshaping the Software Value Chain

The coding skills of artificial intelligence agents are rapidly improving, accelerating the software development cycle.

As the cost of software development decreases, software production will accelerate, impacting companies' decisions on "in-house development or purchase," replacing those traditional software companies that adapt slowly. With the popularity of custom software, growth at all layers of the software stack will accelerate, although market share will shift towards the platform layer.

Artificial intelligence is also triggering a Cambrian explosion in the software field. By 2030, as companies invest in productivity-enhancing solutions, the number of software deployed per knowledge worker is expected to increase significantly. Depending on the adoption rate, global software spending could accelerate from a 14% annual growth rate over the past decade to 18%—48%.

Risk Warning and Disclaimer

The market carries risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment goals, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article align with their specific circumstances. Investment based on this is at one's own risk