Track Hyper | The quality of Top Group's Tesla humanoid robot

Author: Zhou Yuan / Wall Street News

On January 29, Tesla CEO Elon Reeve Musk disclosed the mass production data of the Tesla Optimus humanoid robot and a super optimistic outlook for 2026-2027 during the Q4 2024 earnings call, sparking market interest in the A-share suppliers of the "T-chain" robots.

However, much of the information regarding Tesla Optimus humanoid robot suppliers in the current market is not very accurate, and some companies clearly have misinformation.

Recently, Wall Street News discovered during the process of sorting out and verifying information about "T-chain" humanoid robot suppliers that Top Group is one of the two suppliers with a very high degree of certainty for the "T-chain."

On January 7 of this year, Minsheng Securities mentioned in its report titled "Top Group: Acquiring to Expand Market Share 'Vehicle + Robot' Synergy" that "on January 8, two electric drive system production lines were put into operation, with an annual production capacity of 300,000 sets of electric drive actuators, and the new capacity has begun planning and design."

What is this electric drive actuator?

On January 5, 2024, Top Group announced that "on January 4, 2024, Top Group plans to invest 5 billion yuan, planning to use 300 acres of land to build a core component production base for robots in the Ningbo Economic and Technological Development Zone: mainly engaged in the R&D, production, and sales of robot electric drive systems, and gradually expand other robot component businesses."

However, it is unclear whether the "January 8" mentioned in Minsheng Securities' report refers to 2024 or 2025.

From the mention of "two electric drive system production lines put into operation on January 8," it should refer to 2025.

Because if it refers to 2024, Top Group had just disclosed the launch of the robot core component production base, making it unlikely to achieve production in such a short time.

Top Group had released a related announcement on January 5, 2024—at that time and subsequently, it did not disclose how many production lines there were, what the annual production capacity was, or what progress was made afterward, so Minsheng Securities must have special information channels.

Wall Street News inquired with the lead analyst of the report at Minsheng Securities but did not receive a response.

In its 2023 annual report, Top Group stated that it has established an electric drive division responsible for promoting the expansion of the robot actuator business.

In the 2023 annual report, Top Group indicated that "robot actuators are the core components of robots, mainly including linear actuators and rotary actuators; to break through many engineering design limits, it is necessary to achieve optimized integration and communication of various motors, reduction mechanisms, sensors, encoders, drivers, and controllers, thus the structure is complex and the technology is very intensive."

According to the information disclosed during Tesla AI DAY, from the perspective of the value structure of Tesla Optimus component products, actuators (commonly known as joint modules) account for about 56% of the main component value, composed of the following modules:

• Planetary roller screw (linear motion)

• Frameless torque motor (joint drive, high torque)

• Gear reducer (adjusting speed and torque)

• Force sensor (perceiving external force)

• Hollow cup motor (fine control) and bearings (mechanical support), etc.

Dongxing Securities Co., Ltd. research report believes that the value of each module of domestic humanoid robot actuators, from high to low, is as follows: planetary roller screw > frameless torque motor > harmonic reducer > six-dimensional torque sensor > hollow cup motor > trapezoidal screw > planetary reducer.

The core components typically included in the electric drive system of humanoid robot actuators are:

• Motor (such as frameless torque motor, hollow cup motor): directly outputs power;

• Motor controller (drive circuit, power module): controls motor speed, torque, and direction of movement;

• Power management module (battery, BMS): provides electrical energy and optimizes energy distribution;

• Reducer/transmission mechanism (such as planetary gear, harmonic reducer): matches load requirements and adjusts output characteristics.

Top Group states, "The company's core advantages in the robot actuator business include: 1. Self-research capabilities for various motors such as permanent magnet servo motors and frameless motors; 2. Experience in integrating motors, reduction mechanisms, and controllers. The robot electric drive actuators and rotary actuators developed by the company have been sampled to customers multiple times, receiving recognition and praise, with rapid project progress."

Who is this "customer"?

Since Top Group has been a supplier of Tesla's new energy vehicles since 2016, many market sources speculate that the robot actuator sample customer mentioned in Top Group's 2023 annual report is Tesla, for the Optimus humanoid robot.

In a report titled "Industry Special Research - Humanoid Robot Review" released by Tianfeng Securities on February 3 this year, it states that Top Group is a core supplier of the "T chain" (the abbreviation for Tesla's humanoid robot supply chain), mainly supplying Tesla humanoid robot actuators. Motion actuators are one of the core components of Tesla's robots.

According to Top Group's 2023 annual report, it will quickly iterate and upgrade based on customer needs and enter the mass production stage; the robot electric drive actuators and rotary actuators developed by the company have been sampled to customers multiple times, receiving recognition and praise, with rapid project progress.

In the 2024 semi-annual report and the 2024 annual performance pre-increase announcement, Top Group mentioned, "The company's electric drive system has officially gone into production and started delivering products, forming a dual industrial development model of smart cars and electric drives."

Top Group stated in its financial report that to simulate human movement, each robot requires dozens of motion actuators, with a single machine value of about tens of thousands of RMB, indicating a huge market space. "The company is laying out electric drive actuators for robots, and this track is aimed at a trillion-level market for the future of humanity, with broad development prospects."

According to Top Group's 2024 semi-annual report, during the reporting period, the electric drive system achieved revenue of 6.2711 million yuan, with a gross profit margin of 52.32%; in 2023, this revenue was 1.8543 million yuan, with a gross profit margin of 81.25%.

It is not difficult to foresee that in 2024, Top Group's electric drive system revenue will likely exceed 10 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate possibly approaching 10 times. Once Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot is mass-produced, Top Group's electric drive system revenue will explode simultaneously At the end of January, Musk disclosed that Tesla's production target for the Optimus humanoid robot is to achieve approximately 10,000 units by 2025 (with several thousand units initially deployed in factories), increasing to 50,000 to 100,000 units by 2026, and then increasing tenfold again in 2027