How many stars for Spring Festival consumption?
This year's Spring Festival consumption performance was below expectations. Despite the extended holiday and an early return home trend, residents' willingness to spend remained low, leading to a decrease in outdoor consumption. Data shows a decline in car purchasing intentions, with movie-going and low-cost consumption becoming more popular. Meanwhile, second-hand home sales were strong, while new home sales were weak. Outbound tourism became a highlight, with a significant increase in international flights. Overall, the recovery of consumption during the Spring Festival was insufficient, laying the groundwork for further consumption policy measures
This year's Spring Festival consumption is somewhat special: "taking leave to extend the holiday" has lengthened the Spring Festival holiday period, making the "return home tide" start earlier than in previous years, and also making the Spring Festival travel rush more "heated" than in previous years. However, after "peeling back the layers" of the data, it can be found that this year's Spring Festival has a relatively limited boosting effect on consumption, with residents holding a consumption mentality of "buying a car is not as good as watching a movie" and "consuming outside is not as good as resting at home." Considering that the recovery of consumption during the Spring Festival is somewhat "lacking in star power," this lays the groundwork for increased consumption policies after the holiday (such as "two new").
The "return home tide" in 2025 started particularly early. Unlike previous years, this year's Spring Festival travel saw tourists "jumping the gun," as evidenced by the nationwide inter-regional personnel flow and the net inflow of population in lower-tier cities, indicating that the "return home tide" started significantly earlier than in previous years before New Year's Eve. The "behind-the-scenes drivers" for the early "return home tide" are, first, that this year's office workers can choose leave modes such as "take 2 days off for 11 days" or "take 4 days off for 13 days" to start the Spring Festival holiday early; second, some groups may face significant employment and economic pressure, and rather than "involution" in big cities, it is better to return home early to rest.
After the large-scale return home, residents' willingness to consume outside is only "a flash in the pan." Although the early "return home tide" temporarily boosted urban subway passenger volume and congestion delay index, the passenger volume of urban rail and road transportation quickly fell below the level of the same period in 2024, indicating that this year's residents' willingness to consume outside is not strong.
Signs of consumption downgrade: "buying a car is not as good as watching a movie." The low level of passenger car sales before the 2025 Spring Festival compared to historical levels also reflects the weak consumption momentum of residents. However, the record-breaking box office of movies during the 2025 Spring Festival seems to show a different picture; we believe the underlying reason may be that compared to expensive goods, residents are currently more keen on "low-cost consumption," which also provides more space for the expansion of lower-tier markets.
At the same time, the trend of "second-hand greater than new houses" continued during the Spring Festival. During the Spring Festival, the sales of commercial housing and second-hand housing presented a starkly different picture—the sales area of commercial housing lingered at a historically low level, while the sales area of second-hand housing remained high. **
Outbound tourism has become a major highlight for residents' travel during the Spring Festival. Since 2025, the number of international flights has increased by 39.5% compared to 2024 (as of February 3 data), and there has been a noticeable rise in international flights during the Spring Festival. The reason for the increased popularity of outbound tourism this Spring Festival is twofold: On one hand, employees can use the "leave-sharing" method this year, and the longer holiday gives them the "confidence" to travel far; on the other hand, the "cost-performance ratio" of outbound tourism this Spring Festival is higher. Data from Qunar shows that the price of outbound flight tickets during the Spring Festival in 2025 has decreased by 12% year-on-year, and the average price of international hotel bookings has decreased by 10%.
Which destination is the best for outbound tourism? From the perspective of flight volume from China to major countries (or regions), Japan, Thailand, South Korea, Europe, and Malaysia have become the top choices for residents' outbound tourism this Spring Festival. Among them, the flight volume to Japan and Malaysia during this Spring Festival has seen the most significant growth, increasing by 59.7% and 59.2% respectively compared to 2024.
Author of this article: Tao Chuan S0100524060005, Zhong Yumei, Source: Chuan Yue Global Macro, Original title: "How many stars for Spring Festival consumption? (Minsheng Macro Tao Chuan Team)"
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