Haitong Securities: The United States will still face significant challenges regarding inflation in 2025, and interest rate cuts are still pending observation

Zhitong
2025.02.02 11:47
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Haitong Securities released a research report stating that inflation in the United States remains high. Although inflation in the U.S. is expected to ease somewhat in 2024, volatility remains significant with many disruptive factors. In the fourth quarter, both the PCE and core PCE price indices in the U.S. saw a year-on-year increase. The firm predicts that inflation will still face significant challenges in 2025, and changes in the Federal Reserve's stance and fluctuations in the asset side may be unavoidable. Haitong Securities indicated that the U.S. real GDP is expected to grow by 2.8% year-on-year in 2024, a decline of 0.1 percentage points from 2023, but still maintains resilience. Specifically, the year-on-year growth rate of GDP in the fourth quarter is 2.3% (previous value 3.1%). In detail, consumption continues to strongly drive the U.S. economy, with both goods and services consumption strengthening in the fourth quarter. The contribution of private investment to the economy is also expected to increase in 2024. Among them, residential investment is the core driver of the rebound in fixed asset investment growth. However, in the fourth quarter, investment weakened due to the drag from equipment investment and inventory. Additionally, strong import performance in 2024 has led to a drag on the economy from net exports, and the robust import performance also reflects that current domestic demand in the U.S. still has a certain degree of resilience. Risk warning: unexpected adjustments in overseas monetary policy

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Haitong Securities has released a research report stating that inflation in the United States remains relatively high. Although inflation in the U.S. is expected to ease somewhat in 2024, volatility remains significant with many disruptive factors. In the fourth quarter, both the U.S. PCE and core PCE price indices saw a year-on-year increase. The firm anticipates that inflation will still face considerable challenges in 2025, and changes in the Federal Reserve's stance and fluctuations in the asset side may be unavoidable.

Haitong Securities indicated that the U.S. real GDP is expected to grow by 2.8% year-on-year in 2024, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from 2023, but still maintains resilience. Specifically, the GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter is projected to be 2.3% (previous value 3.1%). In detail, consumer spending continues to strongly drive the U.S. economy, with both goods and services consumption strengthening in the fourth quarter. Private investment's contribution to the economy is also expected to increase in 2024. Residential investment is the core driver of the rebound in fixed asset investment growth. However, in the fourth quarter, investment weakened due to the drag from equipment investment and inventory. Additionally, strong import performance in 2024 has led to a drag on net exports, and the robust import performance also reflects that current domestic demand in the U.S. still has a certain degree of resilience.

Risk Warning: Unexpected adjustments in overseas monetary policy

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