Trump's tariffs disrupt the crude oil market, and U.S. oil prices may face an increase

Recently, Trump signed an executive order announcing additional tariffs on imported goods from Canada and Mexico, including energy products. International oil prices may face further price pressure.

According to CCTV News, U.S. President Trump signed an executive order on the 1st to impose an additional 25% tariff on imported products from Canada and Mexico, and a 10% tariff on energy resources from Canada.

On February 1st local time, Trudeau stated that he met with the premiers of Canadian provinces and his cabinet that day, and would also speak with Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Trudeau mentioned that Canada does not wish for this situation to occur, but is prepared. Later that evening, Trudeau would address the Canadian people.

The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers trade group stated that it is difficult to predict how the tariffs will affect supply, demand, and trade patterns, but the association is "deeply disappointed" by the tariffs. The association's president, Lisa Baiton, stated in a statement:

"These tariffs undermine our mutually beneficial relationship, potentially increasing costs and inflation for American consumers while harming the economies of both countries."

As of the time of publication, Brent crude oil rose 0.7% to $76.42 per barrel. WTI crude oil rose 1.47% to $72.80. This week, Brent and WTI crude oil fell 2.1% and 2.9%, respectively, marking the second consecutive week of decline.

International oil prices may face further price pressure

Canada and Mexico are the two largest crude oil suppliers to the United States. Canada exports nearly 4 million barrels of crude oil daily, almost all of which goes to the U.S., while Mexico exports about 500,000 barrels of crude oil daily to the U.S., primarily purchased by Valero Energy Corp. for its Gulf Coast refineries.

The Midwest region of the U.S. has 23% of the nation's refining capacity and is highly dependent on Canadian crude oil supplies. Now, the pipeline that originally transported oil from the Gulf of Mexico to the Midwest has changed direction, making it difficult for refineries in the region to obtain other types of crude oil.

Goldman Sachs analysts Samantha Dart and Daan Struyven warned, "The Canadian oil tariffs could be unpopular in the Midwest, even if only temporarily." To minimize upward pressure on gasoline and home heating oil prices, White House officials stated that the tariff rate on Canadian energy imports is relatively low at 10%.

The U.S. refining industry is concerned about the tariff policy. Last week, fuel producers warned that the tariffs would erode refining profits and disrupt the oil market. Valero executives stated that U.S. refineries may reduce refining rates as a result, while Phillips 66 warned that Canadian crude oil prices would fall significantly. Chet Thompson, president of the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers Association, stated in an email:

"We hope to quickly reach a solution with our North American neighbors to remove crude oil, refined products, and petrochemical products from the tariff list before consumers feel the impact."

The specific implementation details of the tariff policy will determine its impact on the market. If producers are allowed to export oil to non-U.S. buyers from the Gulf Coast without tariffs, the impact on Canadian oil prices will be mitigated. Additionally, it remains unclear how the tariffs will affect Western Canadian oil transported to refineries in Ontario and Montreal via the U.S.

However, he also noted that Canadian producers may partially benefit from a weaker Canadian dollar, and the maintenance season in the oil sands region, which typically begins around April, may reduce crude oil production, helping to alleviate the impact of the tariffs:

"I can even say that most stocks have already discounted a 10% tariff."

The price of Western Canadian Select crude oil has softened under tariff expectations, trading on Friday at $15.50 per barrel lower than WTI crude, marking the largest discount since July 30.

Eric Nuttall, partner and senior portfolio manager at Ninepoint Partners, expects that a 10% tariff could further widen the spread to $16 to $17 per barrel.

Mexico's oil industry may also be impacted. If U.S. refiners turn to other suppliers, Petróleos Mexicanos may have to increase long-distance sales to Europe and Asia, which would squeeze its profits.

Moreover, as the largest buyer of U.S. diesel and gasoline, Mexico will also be indirectly affected by rising fuel costs in the U.S. This may prompt Mexico to increase imports from Europe and Asia