February 1st "Turning Point": Global Markets Face "Tariff Uncertainty"
With Trump's confirmation of a 25% tariff on goods from Mexico and Canada, global markets are facing "tariff uncertainty." Investors are paying attention to the impact of this policy, particularly the uncertainty surrounding tax rates and industry exemptions. February 1 has become a key date, with mixed reactions in the market to Trump's tariff threats, leading to gains in some stock indices. Automobile manufacturers and semiconductor companies may be significantly affected. Analysts point out that the market has priced in the tariffs, but there are still risks that exceed expectations
As Trump's tariff threats may soon materialize, investors are focusing on the potential impact on global stock markets.
According to CCTV News on Friday, White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre confirmed during a briefing that a 25% tariff will be imposed on goods from Mexico and Canada starting February 1.
What worries the market the most is that there are still many uncertainties surrounding this policy, such as the level of tariffs and industry exemptions. Some believe that extracting accurate information from Trump's related statements will be a significant challenge for investors.
For instance, there was once "a cloud of uncertainty" regarding when the tariff policy would actually take effect. On Thursday, Trump stated that the tariffs would begin on Saturday, while Reuters reported on Friday that the tariff policy would take effect on March 1. On Friday afternoon, the White House confirmed that the tariffs would take effect on February 1.
This makes February 1 an important milestone. Chris Beckett, head of research at Quilter Cheviot, commented:
"Since we don't know what will happen, we must assume that almost all goods imported into the United States will be subject to tariffs. So we will start to worry about retaliatory measures and a general reduction in free trade."
Gilles Guibout, head of European equities at AXA IM, also pointed out: "The market has already priced in a lot regarding the U.S. tariff issue, but the risk of Trump exceeding expectations always exists."
Currently, stock markets around the world are reacting differently to Trump's tariff threats.
Statistics show that in the 10 days since Trump first raised the tariff threat on January 21, the S&P 500 index has remained basically flat, while stock indices in Europe, Canada, and Mexico have all risen.
From an industry perspective, some analysts believe that automakers such as General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis may be significantly affected due to their substantial operations in Mexico and Canada; electric vehicle manufacturers Tesla, Rivian, and Lucid Group may also be impacted.
Additionally, industrial manufacturers such as Deere & Company, Caterpillar, and Boeing may face difficulties, and U.S. semiconductor manufacturers like Nvidia, Applied Materials, and Broadcom may also be hit.
Regionally, although European stocks may not be as affected by Trump's tariffs as U.S. stocks, they are not without risk. Currently, only 40% of the revenues of the Stoxx 600 index constituents come from within the EU, while 26% come from North America.
Risk Warning and Disclaimer
The market carries risks, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article align with their specific circumstances. Investment based on this is at one's own risk