NVIDIA "When a whale falls, all things thrive," China AI takes a seat at the table

Since the sharp drop on Monday, the computing power related to inference has rebounded violently, especially in electricity, inference-related switches, and chips. According to statistics from Goldman Sachs trading desk, since the sharp drop on Monday, Semi is up 5% (down 5% this week, still up 1% YTD), electricity is up 8% (down 5% this week, still up 8% YTD), and some exaggerated ones, electricity VST rebounded by 28%, Credo by 17%, Arista by 14%, and Celestica even saw a performance rebound of 31%. A big shot in my friend circle described it very aptly: When a whale falls, everything thrives...

So will this "whale" really fall? Compared to ASICs, Ethernet, and even edge computing that are closer to the inference theme, NV's elasticity and so-called "slope" may not be high. Facing the controversy brought by the narrative switch in training, it is indeed against the wind, while Q1 performance/supply chain/ban noise continues. But NV is still the big beta of the entire computing power market. The diversification of inference cards is inevitable, driven by the diversity of workloads and scenarios, and even the will of various ecosystem players, which is unstoppable.

However, the ultimate greatest common divisor of computing power is likely still NV GPU. Just like when everyone is spreading that AMD/910C/Groq runs DeepSeek, NV's own NIM inference service has directly launched the r1 API. The ability to run, cost-effectiveness in specific scenarios, and the comprehensive cost-effectiveness after software optimization in different complex scenarios are different measurement standards.

Whenever there is a major narrative switch, it will hit you hard, but slowly it will follow the beta upward. Today I saw Yusen say: During the ten years of the internet bubble, Cisco had three pullbacks of over 40%. NV has only consolidated a few times in the past two years, without any significant pullback... Indeed, the short-term alpha has shifted to inference, and DeepSeek's promotion of the ecosystem has actually accelerated the diversification process of inference, providing more opportunities for selecting computing power stocks than before.

As soon as the issue reaches this point, the controversy is immense... We have mentioned before that this debate has always existed and will likely continue in the future, essentially a game of interests between giants in different ecological niches, all very strong and unstoppable...

In addition, Chinese concept stocks related to AI continue to surge, Alibaba is even rising... It has risen for 9 out of the past 10 trading days. Recently, overseas investment giants have noticeably changed their views on Chinese AI due to DeepSeek. Reid Hoffman, co-founder of LinkedIn and a well-known investor, said on CNBC, “China is in the game,” and Cathie Wood said on BBG TV, “we're looking more closely at China.” Whether A-shares will rise or not is uncertain, but let the Hang Seng Tech start with a good opening Risk Warning and Disclaimer

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