U.S. Stock Outlook | Large Tech Stocks Hit Hard by DeepSeek, U.S. Earnings Season Focuses on Macroeconomic Data

Pre-Market Market Trends

1. As of January 27 (Monday) pre-market, U.S. stock index futures are all down. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are down 0.98%, S&P 500 futures are down 2.39%, and Nasdaq futures are down 4.10%. Chip stocks such as Broadcom, NVIDIA, and TSMC are leading the declines, while large tech stocks like Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, Oracle, Amazon, and Google are also down.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is down 1.14%, the UK FTSE 100 index is down 0.20%, the French CAC 40 index is down 0.91%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is down 1.36%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is down 0.17%, priced at $74.53 per barrel. Brent crude oil is down 0.19%, priced at $77.40 per barrel.

Market News

"Super Data Week" is coming! Will the U.S. stock market withstand the test under Trump 2.0 with the Federal Reserve and tech giants' earnings reports bombarding us? The S&P 500 index just recorded its best performance in the first four trading days of a new president's term since Reagan took office in 1985. In the coming week, a large amount of economic news will test whether this rally is solid. More than 100 companies in the S&P 500 index are about to announce their earnings, among which the performances of tech giants Meta, Microsoft, Apple, and Tesla are expected to be closely watched. Additionally, Starbucks, ExxonMobil, and Chevron will also release their earnings reports. In the early hours of Thursday, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest monetary policy decision, with the market generally expecting the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged. Investors will pay attention to Fed Chairman Powell's views on policy expectations for 2025.

"DeepSeek Storm" sweeps the globe, and the "Four Giants" of U.S. stocks urgently need strong performances to win over investors. The "Four Giants" of U.S. stocks—Apple, Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla—will announce their earnings this week, and their performances are crucial for the U.S. stock market and even the global stock market trends. These tech giants account for nearly 40% of the weight in the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite index, and their performances are related to global tech stock investors' faith and positive outlook on "artificial intelligence." If their performances generally fall short of market expectations, it may lead investors to question the revenue and profit prospects associated with AI, potentially triggering a global tech stock crash similar to last summer Therefore, global investors are eagerly hoping that the massive investments by the "Four Giants" of the U.S. stock market in AI can achieve positive revenue and profit scales, thereby significantly exceeding overall revenue and profit expectations. Otherwise, they will view this "irrational" AI spending, which fails to bring any substantial profits despite large investments, as completely damaging the profits attributable to the company's common stock shareholders, leading to a wave of sell-offs.

"Good news is bad news"! Citigroup: Focus on macro data during U.S. earnings season. Citigroup's research report points out that currently, the U.S. stock market is in an environment where good (macro) news equates to bad (stock market) news, a situation that may persist until the first quarter. Citigroup states that during this earnings season, macroeconomic factors may be more important. The market typically shifts its focus to company performance during earnings season; however, this year, the inauguration of Trump and the Federal Reserve meetings have disrupted the typical news cycle. This has led investors to pay attention to the macro impact on the S&P 500 index, even as earnings and performance guidance are being released. Citigroup notes that the U.S. stock market is still in a "bad macro = good stock market" mode.

Trump "challenges" the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, but Wall Street warns: The signals for rate hikes are becoming stronger. Just days after the inauguration, President Trump began to pressure the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. However, Wall Street believes that this is unlikely to happen and even thinks that the possibility of rate hikes is increasing. The Federal Reserve will hold a meeting this week and announce its policy on Wednesday afternoon Eastern Time. Wall Street expects that after last year's 100 basis point rate cut, rates are expected to remain at 4.25%-4.5%. Moreover, this may be the lower limit for rates, as the U.S. economy remains strong, and anticipated tariffs, tax cuts, and immigration restrictions will drive up inflation. Thanos Papasavvas, founder and chief investment officer of ABP Invest, stated: "We do not believe the Federal Reserve will cut rates in 2025—we don't even think the Federal Reserve has finished (tightening monetary policy)." "On the contrary, we expect the resilient U.S. economy and Trump's policies to push up inflation expectations, forcing Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to raise rates starting in September." Dan Ivascyn, chief investment officer of bond giant Pacific Investment Management Company (Pimco), stated that as Wall Street awaits more economic data and clarity on Trump's policies, the Federal Reserve is prepared to maintain rates unchanged for the "foreseeable future." He added that while rate hikes are not in his baseline expectations, "it is certainly possible," as recent surveys indicate rising consumer inflation expectations.

Wall Street hopes Trump’s immigration policy will show mercy, or the economy will suffer a destructive shock. Strategists and analysts believe that Trump's immigration policy is a costly gamble. Large-scale deportations could disrupt service-intensive industries such as hospitality and leisure, as well as labor-intensive sectors like agriculture, food production, manufacturing, and construction. Strategists, economists, and Wall Street professionals believe that Trump's comprehensive plan will trigger shockwaves throughout the economy, inflation will soar, and labor-intensive industries such as agriculture and construction will struggle to find workers. An analysis found that deporting all illegal immigrants from the U.S. would reduce the country's GDP by 8% Investors concerned about Trump's deportation plan will focus on shareholders of companies that own hotel properties and fast-food restaurants, as well as producers of food and building products—all of which rely on low-skilled labor. Nevertheless, investors have not yet felt uneasy, mainly because they do not believe Trump will fully implement his plan.

Individual Stock News

DeepSeek strikes Wall Street, US tech giants collectively plummet! As of the time of writing, US tech stocks are generally lower in pre-market trading. Microsoft (MSFT.US) fell over 6%, Meta (META.US), Oracle (ORCL.US), and Amazon (AMZN.US) dropped over 5%, while Tesla (TSLA.US) and Google (GOOGL.US) fell over 4%. Chip stocks led the declines, with Broadcom (AVGO.US) down over 13%, Nvidia (NVDA.US) nearly 11%, TSMC (TSM.US) and Micron Technology (MU.US) close to 10%, ASML (ASML.US) down over 9%, and AMD (AMD.US) down over 6%. The widespread decline in US tech stocks is related to the low-cost AI model launched by DeepSeek. This model achieves performance comparable to OpenAI's o1 at a very low cost, raising market concerns about the return on investment for AI among tech giants that are currently overvalued. Analysts believe that DeepSeek's ability to achieve top model performance with limited hardware resources reduces reliance on high-end GPUs, and the low training costs indicate that the demand for computing power for large AI models will significantly decrease.

AT&T (T.US) Q4 earnings exceed expectations, reaffirms 2025 profit guidance. Benefiting from seasonal promotions and bundled products, as well as better-than-expected growth in mobile and fiber internet users, AT&T's Q4 2024 performance exceeded market expectations. The financial report shows that AT&T's Q4 revenue increased by 1% year-on-year to $32.3 billion, slightly above analyst expectations; adjusted earnings per share were 54 cents, flat compared to the same period last year, and higher than the analyst expectation of 50 cents. In Q4, the company added 482,000 mobile users, exceeding the analyst expectation of 442,000. The number of fiber internet service customers increased by 307,000 in Q4, surpassing the analyst expectation of 266,000. Additionally, the company reaffirmed its expectation of adjusted earnings per share of $1.97 to $2.07 for 2025.

Google (GOOGL.US) AI chip business valued over $700 billion, may become the most valuable segment. Analysts at financial services firm DA Davidson stated in a report on January 26 that Google's artificial intelligence chip business not only rivals Nvidia but may also become the most valuable part of the internet search company. The analysts claim that the value of these AI businesses exceeds $700 billion, or $60 per share. It is understood that Google's current market capitalization is approximately $2.5 trillion, with a share price of $200. According to analysts, a key part of Google's potential value comes from its chips, specifically the Tensor Processing Units (TPUs). These chips can enhance the performance of AI computers Meta (META.US) makes a big investment, heavily poaching TikTok creators. Meta has launched a new initiative offering bonuses of up to $5,000 through the "Breakthrough Bonus Program" to attract TikTok creators to its platform. TikTok is currently unavailable for download in the U.S. app stores of Apple and Google, and Meta is seizing this opportunity to promote its social media platform Instagram to more users. The program aims to encourage creators to post on Facebook and Instagram to capture a portion of TikTok's user base. According to Meta, the project is open to U.S. creators who already have a presence on other social media platforms and are willing to link to that platform during the application process.

Pfizer (PFE.US) Braftovi therapy trial achieves great success, with over 60% effectiveness in colorectal cancer treatment. Pfizer announced last Saturday that its colorectal cancer treatment drug Braftovi (encorafenib), as part of a combination regimen, showed significant clinical effects in late-stage trials, capable of reducing tumor size. After releasing data from its Phase III BREAKWATER trial, the New York-based pharmaceutical giant stated that the Braftovi-based combination therapy demonstrated consistent safety with previous trials of each drug component. Detailed results showed that the objective response rate for the Braftovi combination therapy was 61%, with clinically and statistically significant effects, while the objective response rate for chemotherapy patients was 40%. Additionally, the median duration of response for the Braftovi combination therapy was 13.9 months, compared to 11.1 months for the chemotherapy group.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

Beijing time 21:00 U.S. December building permits month-on-month revision

Beijing time 23:00 U.S. December seasonally adjusted new home sales annual total

Earnings Forecast

Tuesday pre-market: SAP (SAP.US), Boeing (BA.US), General Motors (GM.US)