JPMorgan expects net interest income of about $103 billion in 2026

Summary

JPMorgan Chase forecasts its 2026 net interest income (NII) to be approximately $103 billion, exceeding the market consensus estimate of $100.38 billion.USHK News This guidance comes as the bank’s own economists have shifted their view, no longer expecting a Fed rate cut in 2026 and even projecting a potential hike in 2027.AnueSec+ 2 While some analysts view the stock’s valuation as a constraint,Zhitong others see a positive outlook for large US banks continuing through 2026.Zhitong

Impact Analysis

JPMorgan is essentially telling the market its rate-cut assumptions are wrong. The headline 2026 Net Interest Income (NII) guidance of ~$103 billion is a solid beat against the ~$100.4B consensus,USHK News but the real story is the ‘why’. This forecast is underpinned by their own economics team’s bold call for zero Fed cuts in 2026, contrary to broad market expectations.AnueSec+ 2

Reading between the lines, management is signaling that the “higher for longer” rate environment will continue to fuel core profitability, and that consensus earnings models are too low. They are translating a macro view directly into a hard number, betting that sustained net interest margins will surprise to the upside. While some analysts are neutral on valuation,Zhitong this confident guidance provides a clear catalyst for upward earnings revisions if their macro call proves correct. This is a bet on JPM’s view over the market’s; I’d take their side.