Tesla: Dragged into the Gutter by Musk? Faith Is Being Tested Again!

$Tesla(TSLA.US) released its Q1 2025 earnings report after the US stock market closed on April 22nd, Beijing time, presenting what seems to be a poor performance but actually hides improvement information. Let's look at the core information:

1. Total revenue lower than market expectations: This quarter's total revenue was 19.34 billion, which is significantly below the outdated market expectations. However, compared to the approximately 20 billion automotive revenue updated by major banks after Tesla's sales release, it is only slightly lower.

2. This quarter's vehicle gross margin exceeds market expectations: In terms of the pure vehicle sales gross margin (excluding carbon credit impacts), this quarter reached 12.5%. Although it declined by 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous quarter, due to the low sales point in Q1 and the temporary production halt caused by the Model Y Juniper release, the market had already anticipated the decline in vehicle gross margin. The consensus expectation for this quarter's pure vehicle gross margin was 12.2%, while some major banks observed by Dolphin Research were more pessimistic, lowering their expectations to around 11%-12%, with some even in single digits. Therefore, in terms of pure vehicle gross margin, Tesla's performance this quarter exceeded market expectations.

3. Vehicle selling price remained stable this quarter: From the perspective of vehicle selling price, in Q1, Tesla's revenue per vehicle sold (excluding carbon credits and vehicle leasing sales) was $40,000, which is an increase of $200 compared to the previous quarter's $39,800, indicating that the selling price remained stable during the low point of Q1. Dolphin Research believes that the reason for maintaining the selling price this quarter is due to the high starting price of the Model Y Juniper, which offsets the negative impacts of financing promotions and changes in vehicle model structure.

4. Although there was no emphasis on positive growth guidance for 2025 sales this quarter, the low-cost model is still on track for release: In the previous quarter's earnings report, Tesla provided guidance for a return to positive year-on-year sales growth in 2025, but this quarter, Tesla did not continue to emphasize that guidance. Tesla stated that it would provide guidance again in Q2 this year, and the sales volume in 2025 is strongly correlated with the low-cost Model 2.5. Currently, Tesla still indicates that the low-cost Model 2.5 will be produced in the first half of 2025, which is somewhat positive and dispels market rumors that Tesla would abandon the release of the low-cost Model 2.5.

5. Operating profit and profit margin continue to decline quarter-on-quarter: Due to revenue falling short of expectations and an increase in operating expenses quarter-on-quarter, while sales volume declined quarter-on-quarter, the leverage effect was not released. Overall operating profit this quarter was only 400 million, a decrease of nearly 1.2 billion compared to the previous quarter, falling short of the market expectation of 700 million. The operating profit margin this quarter was only 2.1%, a decline of 4 percentage points

Dolphin Research Overall View:

Overall, although Tesla seems to have delivered a report that does not meet expectations this time, the consensus expectations from the sell-side have become outdated. Therefore, compared to the approximately 20 billion automotive revenue updated by major banks after Tesla's sales release, it is only slightly lower.

In terms of actual vehicle sales, the average selling price this quarter has remained relatively stable compared to the previous quarter. Dolphin Research believes that this performance in selling prices is still acceptable. Although the gross margin for vehicle sales has also declined quarter-on-quarter, the main reason is due to the sales trough and the production halt caused by the update of Model Y Juniper, which has pushed the per-vehicle amortized cost to a historical high. The market had already anticipated this factor, so the actual performance of the vehicle sales gross margin is still above market expectations.

Since the first quarter is generally the bottom for vehicle sales, the market is more focused on the following key factors regarding Tesla's seemingly disappointing financial report (but in fact, the performance of selling prices is still acceptable, and the pure vehicle sales gross margin is also higher than market expectations):

1) Will the cheap Model 2.5 be launched? When will it be released?

Remember that in the last quarter's financial report, Tesla provided guidance that sales in 2025 would return to positive growth year-on-year. However, this quarter, Tesla did not continue to emphasize this guidance and stated that it would provide guidance again in the second quarter of this year. The sales volume in 2025 is closely related to the cheap Model 2.5. Currently, Tesla still indicates that the cheap Model 2.5 will be produced in the first half of 2025, which is somewhat positive and dispels market rumors that Tesla would abandon the launch of the cheap Model 2.5.

In terms of the fundamentals of car manufacturing in 2025, there are still many negative market environment impacts:

a) U.S. Region: Policy risks remain significant. The potential cancellation of IRA subsidies in the second half of the year, which would reduce the $7.5K IRA tax credit, effectively raises the price of Tesla vehicles in the U.S. by about 12%. This reduction may take effect in the second half of 2025 and will directly impact the demand for Tesla models in the U.S. After the cancellation of IRA, Tesla must reassess the balance between sales volume and profit margin for existing models Model 3/Y (IRA subsidy reduction or cancellation: ① Tesla raises prices, reduces sales to maintain gross margin; ② Tesla maintains current prices, sacrifices gross margin to preserve sales volume).

b) European Region: After Europe recently announced a relaxation of carbon emission targets for 2025 (allowing automakers to meet standards within three years from 2025 to 2027), the uncertainty surrounding electric vehicle sales in Europe this year is also significant. In the first quarter, it was evident that Tesla's brand value was damaged due to Musk's political activities, which may adversely affect Tesla's salesc) China Region: New energy vehicles in China are expected to see a surge in new models by 2025. Currently, Tesla's models are losing competitiveness in China due to product aging, and the Model Y Juniper has low appeal in the Chinese market. Tesla is still increasing incentives.

Therefore, regarding the overall sales expectations: the market has lowered the overall sales forecast for 2025 to 1.81 million units (a year-on-year increase of 1.3%), while some major banks have a more pessimistic outlook, reducing their 2025 sales forecast to around 1.7 million units (of which existing models account for 1.6 million units, with a year-on-year decline of 10% in existing model sales, and the Model 2.5 contributing an incremental increase of about 100,000 units).

From the perspective of market conditions in various regions, there are still many negative factors. If new models are not launched, the continued decline in sales of existing models is highly likely. The low-cost Model 2.5 is crucial for stabilizing 2025 sales, and the production of Model 2.5 is expected to begin in June, so substantial volume release will have to wait until the second half of the year, which is a favorable factor if it proceeds as planned.

2) Is Robotaxi progressing as planned?

It seems that it will start with a small-scale deployment in Texas in June, with plans to expand to multiple cities in the U.S. by the end of the year, proceeding as planned.

3) Is the progress of Optimus in line with previous guidance?

The Optimus robot project is progressing well, with thousands of robots expected to be in use at Tesla factories by the end of this year, starting this fall.

4) Musk will gradually reduce his involvement with DOGE and refocus on Tesla's corporate management.

The following is a detailed analysis of the financial report:

I. Tesla: It is bad, but is the darkness before dawn really that terrifying?

1.1 Automotive Revenue: Lowest in three years, sales are declining

This quarter's total revenue was 19.34 billion, which is significantly below outdated market expectations. However, compared to the approximately 20 billion automotive revenue updated by major banks after Tesla's sales release, it is slightly lower, and the reason for the shortfall remains in vehicle sales revenue.

In the automotive business, total revenue this quarter was 14.2 billion, with only about a 200 million difference from the latest expectations of major banks after the sales release, which is not large. When excluding carbon credits and leasing income, the actual automotive sales (excluding carbon credits) this quarter were only 12.9 billion, slightly below the latest major bank expectation of 13.1 billion.

In other businesses, energy and service sectors performed relatively average, with energy services revenue this quarter at 2.73 billion, slightly below the market expectation of 3.07 billion, and service revenue this quarter at 2.64 billion, slightly below the market expectation of 2.73 billion.

1.2 Although the gross margin for car sales continues to decline month-on-month, it still exceeds market expectations

Every performance report, the most significant information, beyond revenue, and the real incremental information during the earnings report has always been the performance of automotive gross margins.

Although the automotive gross margin continued to decline month-on-month this quarter, with the overall automotive gross margin dropping from 16.6% in the previous quarter to 16.2% in the first quarter, the first quarter is generally the bottom for car sales. Additionally, Tesla's production and sales were poor this quarter, so the market had already anticipated the decline in automotive gross margins. In fact, the automotive gross margin this quarter outperformed the market expectation of 15.6%.

In other businesses, the energy storage business performed well, with a gross margin of 28.8% this quarter, exceeding the market expectation of 26%. Tesla stated that the Powerwall is currently in a state of supply shortage, and the 100 Megapacks produced by the Shanghai energy storage Gigafactory are still in transit and have not yet confirmed revenue. However, due to the uncertainty of U.S. tariffs, the impact on the energy storage business is relatively significant (the impact of tariffs on the energy business is more pronounced than on the automotive business), so there remains uncertainty regarding the performance of energy storage in subsequent quarters.

The service business had a gross margin of 3.8% this quarter, continuing to decline slightly from 4.2% in the previous quarter, falling short of the market expectation of 6.6%, which is expected to be negatively affected by the gross margins of the used car and insurance businesses.

2. Revenue from the vehicle manufacturing business fell short of expectations, but gross margin performance exceeded expectations

2.1 Automotive gross margin performance exceeded market expectations

As the most important observation indicator each quarter, automotive gross margin is crucial, especially given the aging of Tesla's existing models and increasing competition. To clarify the true situation of automotive gross margins, Dolphin Research separately analyzed the automotive sales gross margin excluding carbon credits, automotive leasing gross margin, and the overall gross margin of the automotive business.

Since the automotive leasing business is small in scale and has stable gross margins, the overall gross margin for automobiles is a combination of the two. The detailed breakdown is mainly to observe the automotive sales gross margin excluding carbon credits.

The automotive sales gross margin (excluding carbon credits and leasing) in the first quarter was 12.5%. Although it continued to decline month-on-month (down about 1.1 percentage points), due to the low sales point in the first quarter and the impact of the Model Y Juniper's production launch, the market had already anticipated the decline in the gross margin for car sales. The market's consensus expectation for the pure car sales gross margin this quarter was 12.2%, while some major institutions observed by Dolphin Research were more pessimistic, lowering their expectations to around 11%-12%. Therefore, in terms of pure car sales gross margin, Tesla's performance this quarter exceeded market expectations.

Therefore, the key question here is why Tesla's automotive business gross margin this quarter can still exceed market expectations? Let's take a look from the perspective of unit economics:

2.2 The selling price per vehicle remained basically stable during the low point of the first quarter

From the perspective of the selling price per vehicle, in the first quarter, Tesla's revenue per vehicle sold (excluding carbon credits and vehicle leasing sales) was $40,000, which is $39,800 compared to the previous quarter, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of $200. The selling price per vehicle remained basically stable during the low point of the first quarter, so the performance of the selling price per vehicle is considered acceptable by Dolphin Research.

Let's look at the reasons why the selling price per vehicle can remain stable this quarter: The high starting price of the Model Y Juniper launch offset financing promotions and other incentive measures, as well as the negative impact of changes in model structure:

① Price adjustments for existing models: The starting price of the Model Y Juniper launch is higher than that of the old Model Y, which has a positive impact on the selling price per vehicle

a. United States: The starting price of the Model Y Juniper in the United States is $59,900, significantly higher than the starting price of the old Model Y, which officially began delivery in the U.S. in March, while also raising the starting prices of the Model S/X.

b. China: Similarly, in China, the starting price of the Model Y Juniper has also been adjusted upward compared to the old Model Y.

c. Europe: Tariff impacts + the release of the new version of the Model Y have also led to an increase in the pricing of the Model Y.

② However, increased financing promotions, inventory vehicles, and discounts on the old Model Y have a negative impact on the selling price per vehicle:a) United States Region: The discount for the Model Y in the U.S. is between $3,000 and $8,000. The 0% financing offer for the Model 3 was restored in early March, after being effective from late October to mid-December. The U.S. has also launched several financing and leasing promotions for the Cybertruck.

b) Chinese Market: The Model 3 continues to offer an insurance subsidy of 8,000 yuan until March, and still provides a 5-year 0% financing rate for the Model 3;

The Model Y Juniper standard range version can enjoy a 3-year 0% installment plan until the end of April (the long-range version increased in price by 10,000 yuan in mid-March), but the Tesla Model Y Juniper offered promotional measures right after its launch, which to some extent reflects limited demand for the Model Y Juniper in China's highly competitive electric vehicle market, as typically newly launched models do not require promotional measures if order volumes are good.

At the same time, to welcome the Model Y Juniper's upgrade, a 10,000 yuan reduction was offered on the purchase price of the old Model Y in February.

③ Model Structure Aspect: It is expected that the proportion of Model 3 will increase this quarter, which will negatively impact the average selling price.

a. Due to the launch of the Model Y Juniper, Tesla halted production in February. It is expected that the proportion of the lower-priced Model 3 will increase in the model structure this quarter, negatively impacting the average selling price. (The wholesale sales proportion of Model Y in China dropped from 63% last quarter to 52% this quarter.)

b. In terms of regional proportions, China's share has remained almost unchanged compared to the previous quarter, mainly due to declines in Europe and other regions.

2.3 Significant Increase in Per Vehicle Amortized Cost Leads to Decline in Gross Margin per Vehicle

Having discussed vehicle prices, let's turn to vehicle costs. Generally, Tesla's cost reduction comes from four dimensions—1) Scale dilution from released sales volume and full utilization of production capacity; 2) Technological cost reduction; 3) Natural cost reduction of battery raw materials; 4) Government subsidies. Specifically:

Dolphin Research breaks down vehicle costs into vehicle depreciation and variable costs. The economic account for each vehicle in the first quarter is as follows:

1) Vehicle Depreciation Effect: Significant Increase in Amortized Cost per Vehicle

This quarter, the absolute value of vehicle depreciation increased by $1,280 compared to the previous quarter, reaching a historical high of $4,300 since 2021. The amortized cost rate per vehicle also rose by 3.2 percentage points from 7.6% last quarter to 10.7% this quarter, which is the most direct reason for the continued decline in gross margin per vehicle this quarter. Dolphin Research believes the main reason for the increase in vehicle depreciation this quarter is:

a) The weeks of production halt due to the Model Y update: This led to idle capacity and other fixed costs related to ramp-up;b) In the first quarter, Tesla sold 337,000 vehicles, a quarter-on-quarter decline of 32%, significantly lower than the market expectation of 384,000 vehicles. The decline in sales led to an increase in the per-vehicle amortized cost.

2) Variable cost per vehicle: The variable cost per vehicle in the first quarter was $31,700, continuing to decrease by approximately $507 quarter-on-quarter, still mainly benefiting from the decline in raw material costs.

3) Automotive gross margin is still declining quarter-on-quarter, but higher than market expectations: Ultimately, due to the significant increase in per-vehicle amortized costs this quarter, although there was a hedging effect from the decline in raw material costs, the hedging was insufficient. Therefore, the overall per-vehicle cost increased by $772 quarter-on-quarter, which was the main reason for the decline in vehicle gross margin this quarter. However, since the market had already factored in the impact of the decline in sales on per-vehicle amortized costs, the vehicle gross margin this quarter still exceeded market expectations.

III. How will Tesla's manufacturing fundamentals evolve by 2025?

3.1 The actual delivery volume in the first quarter was significantly lower than market expectations, with market shares in Europe and the U.S. declining.

In the first quarter, Tesla's actual deliveries were 337,000, lower than the sell-side market expectation of 378,000 and the buy-side market expectation of 350,000. Dolphin Research believes the main reasons are the transition of the Model Y Juniper, the negative impact of Musk's political activities on sales, and the decline in model attractiveness. Specifically:

1) From the perspective of vehicle models:

a. The impact of the Model Y Juniper transition: In February 2025, Tesla updated the production lines for the Model Y "Juniper" model simultaneously at its four major factories (Shanghai, Berlin, Fremont, Austin). During the transition period, the old Model Y in inventory was sold at a discount while accepting pre-orders for the Juniper model, which may have led customers to wait for the new Model Y. The new Model Y began sales in China on February 26, in Europe on March 7, and in the U.S. on March 8.

b. Cybertruck: Demand for the Cybertruck also seems to have weakened, leading Tesla to reduce Cybertruck production and offer 1.99% financing and leasing incentives to stimulate demand.

2) By region: Tesla performed the worst in Europe, with sales declining 43% quarter-on-quarter, and its market share in the European new energy vehicle sector fell from 13.9% last quarter to 7.3% this quarter, a decline of 6.7 percentage points. Tesla's market share in the U.S. also decreased by 2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. Dolphin Research believes that while the transition of the Model Y model had an impact, the more immediate issue is that the decline in market share in Europe and the U.S. is due to brand value damage caused by Musk's political activities, which has been particularly significant in Europe, where corporate fleet buyers account for nearly 50% of sales

3.2 The fundamentals of car manufacturing in 2025 still face significant uncertainty:

Remember that in the last quarterly report, Tesla provided guidance for a return to positive year-on-year growth in sales for 2025, but this quarter, Tesla did not continue to emphasize that guidance. Tesla stated that it would provide guidance again in the second quarter of this year, and the sales volume for 2025 is strongly correlated with the low-cost Model 2.5. Currently, Tesla still indicates that the low-cost Model 2.5 will be produced in the first half of 2025, which is somewhat positive and dispels market rumors that Tesla would abandon the launch of the low-cost Model 2.5.

① Regarding sales expectations: The market has currently lowered the overall sales expectation for 2025 to 1.81 million units (a year-on-year increase of 1.3%), while some major institutions have a more pessimistic outlook, lowering the 2025 sales expectation to around 1.7 million units (of which existing models account for 1.6 million units, with a year-on-year decline of 10% in existing model sales, and the Model 2.5 contributing an incremental approximately 100,000 units).

Breaking it down:

1）United States: The policy risk remains significant. The potential cancellation of IRA subsidies in the second half of the year, which would reduce the $7.5K IRA tax credit, effectively raises the price of Tesla vehicles in the U.S. by about 12%. This reduction may take effect in the second half of 2025 and will directly impact the demand for Tesla models in the U.S. After the cancellation of the IRA, Tesla must reassess the balance between sales and profit margins for existing models Model 3/Y (IRA subsidy reduction or cancellation: ① Tesla raises prices, reducing sales to maintain gross margin; ② Tesla maintains existing prices, sacrificing gross margin to preserve sales).

2）Europe: After Europe recently announced a relaxation of carbon emission targets for 2025 (allowing car manufacturers to meet standards over three years from 2025 to 2027), the uncertainty surrounding electric vehicle sales in Europe this year is also significant. In the first quarter, it was evident that Tesla's brand value was damaged due to Musk's political activities, which could adversely affect Tesla's sales.

3）China: The frequency of new energy vehicles in China is increasing in 2025. Currently, Tesla's competitiveness in China is declining due to product aging, and the Model Y Juniper has low attractiveness in the Chinese market. Tesla is still increasing incentives.

Therefore, from the perspective of market conditions in various regions, there are still many negative factors. If new models are not launched, a continued decline in sales of existing models is highly probable. The low-cost Model 2.5 is crucial for stabilizing sales in 2025, and the production of Model 2.5 is expected to begin in June. Thus, substantial volume release will have to wait until the second half of the year. The market expectations for the launch timing of Model 2.5 are: the U.S. will launch first, Europe in August, and China will not release until the end of 2025, making it difficult to achieve large-scale deliveries before the fourth quarter. If the delivery of Model 2.5 can be advanced, it will have a positive impact on stabilizing sales in 2025② On the expected gross margin for the automotive business:

① Model 2.5 has limited gross margin due to low pricing and production on existing production lines: The Model 2.5 has a low price (below $30,000 after IRA subsidies) and is produced based on existing production lines, resulting in limited cost extraction from current production lines and suppliers, leading to a naturally lower gross margin, especially during the ramp-up period after its launch.

② IRA subsidies may reduce the need for Tesla to balance between sales volume and vehicle gross margin, while the competitiveness of existing models has significantly declined, so incentive measures are expected to continue to strengthen this year.

III. On the expenditure side: Operating expenses are also increasing, and operating profit margin is below expectations

Tesla's R&D expenses and selling expenses have continued to increase this quarter, with R&D expenses at $1.41 billion, higher than the market expectation of $1.2 billion, expected due to increased investment in AI intelligence and new vehicle series development, while selling and administrative expenses this quarter were $1.25 billion, basically in line with the market expectation of $1.26 billion.

Ultimately, mainly due to revenue being below expectations and the sequential increase in operating expenses, while sales volume declined sequentially this quarter, the leverage effect was not released, resulting in an overall operating profit of only $400 million this quarter, a sequential decline of nearly $1.2 billion compared to the previous quarter, below the market expectation of $700 million, with an operating profit margin of only 2.1% this quarter, a sequential decline of 4 percentage points.

In terms of free cash flow, inventory continued to pile up this quarter (the production-sales gap increased by 26,000 units, and inventory continued to rise), with inventory turnover days increasing from 12 days in the previous quarter to 22 days this quarter. Meanwhile, due to revenue being below expectations and the increase in three expenses, overall operating cash flow declined from $4.8 billion in the previous quarter to $2.16 billion this quarter, a decrease of $2.7 billion.

However, due to restraint on capital expenditures this quarter, capital expenditures decreased by $1.3 billion from $2.8 billion in the previous quarter to $1.5 billion this quarter, resulting in a final free cash flow decline of $1.4 billion to $660 million this quarter.

IV. The energy business performed well this quarter, but will be significantly affected by tariffs in the future

4.1 The energy business continues to grow rapidly

Tesla's energy storage and photovoltaic business includes selling photovoltaic systems and energy storage systems to residential customers (to C) and small, medium, and large commercial and utility-level customers (to B)In the first quarter of this year, Tesla achieved revenue of $2.73 billion, slightly above the market expectation of $3.07 billion. The energy storage shipment volume for this quarter was 10.4 GWh, maintaining a trend similar to the previous quarter's 11 GWh. The gross margin for energy storage reached 28.8% this quarter, exceeding the market expectation of 26%, as the Powerwall remained in a state of supply shortage.

However, the uncertainty of U.S. tariffs has a relatively large impact on the energy storage business (the impact of tariffs on the energy business is more significant than on the automotive business), as Tesla sources LFP battery cells from CATL, which is greatly affected by tariffs. Although Tesla is currently adjusting equipment for local production in the U.S., the existing equipment can only meet a small portion of the demand, and they are also seeking non-Chinese suppliers, but this will take time.

Therefore, the performance of energy storage in subsequent quarters remains uncertain. Currently, the 100 Megapacks produced by the Shanghai energy storage super factory are still in transit and have not yet confirmed revenue.

4.2. Service business progressing normally

In the first quarter, Tesla achieved service business revenue of $2.64 billion, slightly below the market expectation of $2.73 billion, indicating a steady progress. The gross margin for this quarter was 3.8%, lower than the market expectation of 6.6%, affected by the decline in gross margins from used car and insurance businesses.

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